Cross-correlation analysis of the productivity of sugar beets and factors, that it is formed

Автор: Пользователь скрыл имя, 18 Ноября 2011 в 21:21, курсовая работа

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Statistics are social science, which studies the quantitative side of the high-quality certain mass socio-economic phenomena and processes, their structure and distributing, placing in space, direction and speed of time-histories, tendencies and conformities to law of motion, closeness of intercommunications and interdepends.
The quantitative side of any public phenomenon is indissolubly related to his high-quality aspects, because a quantitative dimension does not exist without high-quality definiteness.

Содержание

Entry.............................................................................................................................................4
1. An object, task of statistics, its organization, short history of development and connection, is with other sciences........................................................................................................................................ 5
1.1. An object, task of statistics and its connection, is with other sciences..................................5
1.2. Short history of development of statistics..............................................................................7
2. Statistical estimation of indexes of products of stock-raising and factors, that on it influence.......................................................................................................................................9
2.1. System of indexes of statistics of stock-raising and method of their calculation....................................................................................................................................9
2.2. Statistical groupings and their kinds....................................................................................11
2.3. Distributing rows and them graphic image..........................................................................15
2.4. Summarizing the indexes of distributing rows......................................................................21
2.5. Variation of signs and indexes of their measuring...............................................................29
2.6. Verification of accordance of distributing of frequencies of empiric row to distributing
Theoretical..................................................................................................................................36
2.7. Selective method....................................................................................................................37
3. Cross-correlation analysis of the productivity of sugar beets and factors, that it is formed...........................................................................................................................................40
3.1. Grade correlation..................................................................................................................40
3.2. Linear regression. Determination of parameters of connection and them economic interpretation.................................................................................................................................43
3.3. Measuring of intensity of correlation. Coefficient of simple correlation and his maintenance.................................................................................................................................. 48
3.4. Plural correlation...................................................................................................................50
Conclusions....................................................................................................................................56
List of the used literature...............................................................................................................57

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      For a yield: 36,77<36,91<36,98

      Majority governed executed.

     As we marked higher, except for the averages of degree, descriptive descriptions of row of distributing of sign are used in statistics — Moda (Мо) and Mediana (Ме).

      Variants name in statistics the size of sign a fashion, which more frequent all meets in an aggregate. In the interval rows of distributing a fashion is determined after such formula: 

       ,

      where х0 – minimum limit of modal interval, і – size of modal interval, f1 – frequency of interval, that is preceded to modal , f2 – frequency of modal interval, f3 – frequency of interval which stands after modal.

      From data of tabl. 6,8,10 will define a fashion on effective and factor signs:

      Мо(Х1)= 36,94 +1,54 = 37,81 c.f.un.;

      Мо(Х3)= 92,8 +1,4 = 93,64 chairmen ;

      Мо(Y)= 37,24 +1,98 = 37,9 c;

      Median - it variant which stands in the middle of grade row and divides him in half, that row, located in the order of growth or slump of variants.

      A median in the interval row of distributing is determined after a formula: 

                                      Ме= ,

      where х0 – minimum limit of median interval; і- size of median interval; - semisum of frequencies (half of units of aggregate); SMe-1- sum of story frequencies which stand before a median interval; fMe – frequency of median interval.

      From data of tablet. 6,8,10 will define a median. Median will be a that interval, sum of story frequencies of which the first exceeds the half of aggregate: 

      Ме(Х1)= =38,48(c.f.un.)

     Ме(Х2)= =93,73(chairmen)

      Ме(Y)= =37,39(c). 
 
 
 

     2.5 Variation of signs and indexes of their measuring 

     Averages give summarizing description of aggregates on some varying sign. Simply at the that mean value of the probed sign separate aggregates substantially differ between itself after composition and size of deviations from middle. The studies of size of rejections and their distributing utillize homogeneities of aggregate for an estimation, than more small feet of oscillation of sign, that one more native aggregate.

     Variation is a change of size of sign in a statistical aggregate. Variation is the result of action on unit of aggregate of natural, climatic, economic and other factors, and also individual features of separate units.

     The study of variation of sign enables to define, what factors and in which measure influence on the size of the probed signs.

     Study of variation of sign it is necessary for scientific organization of selective supervision, dispersion and cross-correlation analysis.

     For a study variation of sign utillize such indexes as:

  • scope of variation (R),
  • mean linear deviation (d),
  • dispersion and standard deviation (δ2, δ),
  • coefficient of variation (V).

     A scope of variation is a difference between the most and the least value of sign:

     R = Xmax –Xmin.

     Mean linear deviation - middle arithmetic from the absolute values (modules) of rejections of separate values of variation sign from his mean value.

     Mean linear deviation is calculated after such formulas: for frill information: 

     

;

     for the grouped information, when frequencies are different: 

     

.

     Dispersion is an average from the squares of rejections variant from an average (δ2 ), and root the square from dispersion is named standard deviation.

     : Dispersion is calculated after formulas

      for the not grouped information –

      

;
                                      
;

     for the grouped information, when frequencies are different:

     

                                     

     All are considered the indexes of variation characterize the absolute size of rejection and expressed in those metages in which variants are shown and middle. For comparative description of variation of rows with different levels the relative index of variation - coefficient of variation is used.

     A coefficient of variation is attitude of standard deviation toward an average, shown in percents: 

     

.

     He evidently characterizes variation of sign and is to a certain extent reliability middle. If the coefficient of variation anymore 33 %, it means that middle not very much reliable for this aggregate and an aggregate on this sign is heterogeneous.

     Will expect the simple indexes of variation. 

Table 18. A weekend and calculation information is for the calculation of simple indexes of variation

№ п/п Х1  
 
(
-
)2
Х2  
 
(
-
)2
Y  
(Y -
)2
1 40,4 1,31 1,7161 95 1,3 1,69 38,1 1,45 2,1025 2 37,9 1,19 1,4161 93 0,7 0,49 35,9 0,75 0,5625 3 39,5 0,41 0,1681 92 1,7 2,89 38,4 1,75 3,0625 4 42,3 3,21 10,3041 93 0,7 0,49 37,5 0,85 0,7225
5 36,7 2,39 5,7121 94 0,3 0,09 35,4 1,25 1,5625 6 41,3 2,21 4,8841 93 0,7 0,49 38,2 1,55 2,4025 7 37,6 1,49 2,2201 96 2,3 5,29 36,3 0,35 0,1225 8 38 1,09 1,1881 95 1,3 1,69 37,3 0,65 0,4225
9 40,2 1,11 1,2321 97 3,3 10,89 41,2 4,55 20,7025 10 37,4 1,69 2,8561 95 1,3 1,69 36 0,65 0,4225 11 43,1 4,01 16,0801 97 3,3 10,89 38,6 1,95 3,8025
12 37 2,09 4,3681 91 2,7 7,29 32,4 4,25 18,0625 13 41,5 2,41 5,8081 96 2,3 5,29 39,4 2,75 7,5625 14 37,7 1,39 1,9321 91 2,7 7,29 33,7 2,95 8,7025
15 38 1,09 1,1881 93 0,7 0,49 36 0,65 0,4225 16 40 0,91 0,8281 96 2,3 5,29 39 2,35 5,5225 17 37 2,09 4,3681 94 0,3 0,09 35,9 0,75 0,5625
18 38,5 0,59 0,3481 91 2,7 7,29 37,9 1,25 1,5625 19 38 1,09 1,1881 95 1,3 1,69 35,4 1,25 1,5625
20 35,4 3,69 13,6161 90 3,7 13,69 31,3 5,35 28,6225 21 39,7 0,61 0,3721 91 2,7 7,29 37,5 0,85 0,7225
22 40,6 1,51 2,2801 96 2,3 5,29 38,2 1,55 2,4025 23 39,8 0,71 0,5041 94 0,3 0,09 37,8 1,15 1,3225 24 37,8 1,29 1,6641 92 1,7 2,89 36 0,65 0,4225
25 37,5 1,59 2,5281 90 3,7 13,69 33,8 2,85 8,1225
26 41,2 2,11 4,4521 95 1,3 1,69 39,4 2,75 7,5625
27 37,1 1,99 3,9601 92 1,7 2,89 32 4,65 21,6225
28 43 3,91 15,2881 97 3,3 10,89 38,3 1,65 2,7225
29 42 2,91 8,4681 93 0,7 0,49 37,3 0,65 0,4225
30 36,6 2,49 6,2001 94 0,3 0,09 35,2 1,45 2,1025
Сума 1172,8 54,58 127,139 2811 53,6 130,3 1099,4 55,5 155,895
 

     Scope of variation:

     For the expense of forages R = X1max –X1min=43.1 – 35.4=7.7(ц.к.од.);

     For the output of calves  R = X2max –X2min= 97 - 90=7(голів);

     For will milk R = Ymax –Ymin=41,2 -31,3=9,9(ц). 

     Mean linear deviation:

     For the expense of forages ;

     For the output of calves ;

     For will milk

     Dispersion:

     For the expense of forages ;

     For the output of calves ;

     For will milk .

     Standard deviation:

     For the expense of forages ;

     For the output of calves ;

     For will milk .

     Coefficient of variation:

     For the expense of forages  ;

     For the output of calves  ;

     For will milk  .

     Expecting the basic indexes of variation we can assert that all of three aggregates (after the charges of forages, output of calves and yield) is homogeneous, as a coefficient of variation in all three cases more small 33%.

     We can mark in addition, that the middle level of yield on a cow for aggregates makes 36,91 с at the same time he hesitates on ± 2,258с or on 6,2% in relation to a middle level, the middle level of the utillized forages makes 39,09с.f.un. and he in same queue hesitates on ±2,06c.f.un. or on the 5,3% in relation to a middle level, also at to the middle output of calves for aggregates in size of  93,7 chairmen it hesitates on ±2,08 marks or on 2,2% in relation to a middle level.

     Separately will expect the self-weighted indexes of variation. 
 

Table 19. Calculation of the self-weighted  indexes of variation for to the charges of forages

№ groups Groups are after the charges of forages Frequencies Center of interval,

х

          Calculation information
f 2 2f
1 35,4 – 36,94 3 36,17   2,92  
    8,76
 
  8,53
 
25,59
2 36,94 – 38,48 12 37,71 1,38 16,56 1,9 22,8
3   38,48 – 40,02 5 39,25   0,16 0,8 0,0256 0,128
4   40,02 – 41,56 6 40,79 1,7 10,2 2,89 17,34
5   41,56 – 43,1 4 42,33 3,24 12,96 10,5 42
  Together 30 Х Х 49,28     Х 107,86
 

     As our information  is presented as an interval variation row of distributing, utillize formulas for the grouped information.

      Mean linear deviation - = ;

     Dispersion - = ;

     Standard deviation - = .

     Will confirm the calculation of dispersion, expecting it the method of counting out from the conditional beginning (by the method of moments). 

Table 20. Calculation of dispersion  for to the charges of forages by the method of counting out from a conditional zero

Групи за витратами  кормів Частоти, f Центр інтервалу,

х

          Відлік від умовного початку
х-а,

а=37,71

,

і=1,54

( )2 ( )2*f
35,4 – 36,94 3 36,17   -1,54  
    -1
 
     1
 
       3
36,94 –  38,48 12 37,71 0 0 0 0
  38,48 – 40,02 5 39,25   1,54 1      1        5
  40,02 – 41,56 6 40,79 3,08 2 4 24
  41,56 – 43,1 4 42,33 4,62 3 9 36
Together 30 Х Х Х     Х 68
 
 

      Certain and got before will put information to the formula and will calculate the size of dispersion: 
 

      

      Size of dispersions, and consequently and standard deviation coincides. 
 
 

   Table 21. A calculation of the self-weighted  indexes of variation is on the output of calves

№ групи Groups are after the output of calves Frequency

f

Center  of interval, х                 Calculation information
f 2 2f
1 90 – 91,4 6 90,7 3 18 9 54
2 91,4 – 92,8 3 92,1 1,6 4,8 2,56 7,68
3 92,8 – 94,2 9 93,5      0,2      1,8 0,04 0,36
4 94,2 – 95,6 5 94,9 1,2 6 1,44       7,2
5 95,6 - 97 7 96,3 2,6 18,2 6,76 47,32
  Together: 30 Х Х 48,8 Х 116,56
 
 

     As our information is presented as an interval variation row of distributing, utillize formulas for the grouped information.

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